I do believe that unemployment will continue to increase, but appropriate policy responses need to be measured against the need. One of the criticisms of our past monetary policy has been that the Fed has careened between extremes: too tight and then way too loose. At least the Fed has the ability to correct and change course. Some of the heavy-handed fiscal stimulus policies being discussed hold the potential to go too far — and fiscal policy has proven to be much harder to change course — Congress, like all of us, prefers spending money to paying the bill.
For some better perspective, here’s the history of the unemployment rate (persons over 16, seasonally adjusted) since 1970.
The source for the data is the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. For those so inclined, the BLS has put together a terrific site which allows for easy access to intricate data.